A new coach, a new running back, a rebuilt offensive line, more weapons downfield, new defensive look.
The New York Giants have done a pretty fantastic job in attempting a 1-season turnaround. This all looks great on paper, but can Pat Shurmur work his magic and make it all come together in just one offseason?
The Manning Algorithm
Anytime you are dealing with an aging future hall of fame quarterback; there is a lot of moving math. Last season all of the blame went on Eli and later on Mcadoo. But let’s look back at September headlines: titles like “Manning being hit more than usual this season.” That simple sentence shows that we cannot place all of the blame of a 3-13 season on just two people; nobody performed last time around.
Manning is looking good. And even better than that, his relationship with Shurmur and the Giants as a whole looks much better than it did last season. This in itself is an intangible that can lead to success. The “toxic” atmosphere seems to have dissipated. The organization has put a lot of faith in Eli this season. So, he has to bounce back from last year’s catastrophe. Morale is high and according to Damon Harris when he was speaking about playing in the new 3-4 scheme, no one left over from last season is carrying negativity or shame along with them into this season. It is simply “back to the drawing boards.” I mention this because a healthy environment is a great place to get your “bounce” back.
NFC East Implied Probability to Win Division
The Eagles are the odds-on favorites to win the NFC East at all of the best betting sites. They are followed up by the Cowboys. The Giants are third in line, and the Redskins have taken that initial last-in-the-division spot.
We all know that the Eagles are expected to make another super bowl run. The Eagles have it fairly easy, sitting just on the back half of the easier schedules in the League. They are tied for 19th in strength of schedule and are expected to win 11 games on the season.
The Cowboys have the 15th toughest strength of schedule and have high hopes at a run at the playoffs. However, the boys in Las Vegas do not predict an epic season for the “All American” team. The Dallas Cowboys have been lined out at OVER/UNDER 8.5 games, and the juice does not really favor either side. So, they are given an equal chance at going .500 or winning nine games.
The Redskins are still in rebuild mode and have been lined out at OVER/UNDER 6.5 games. The juice is leaning towards UNDER. They have the 14th hardest schedule, which isn’t nightmare-ish, but given their team, six wins seem about the max they will muster.
The G-Men have the 8th hardest schedule in the League. This is not ideal, but we will make do. Most sportsbooks have New York set at OVER/UNDER 7 games with the juice leaning slightly towards the OVER, signifying an eight-win season.
Even if the Giants only win seven, it will be a marked improvement on the three-win affair in 2017. If they hit .500, it cannot be considered a disappointing season in my book. It feels like the player’s heads are in the right place. Plus the organization has done a great job at shoring up that offensive line and putting weapons around Eli. Last season the defense was iffy at best, but the Giant’s new crew should rank somewhere in the middle now (around 18th). If this holds true, a seven-win season should not be a problem and eight or nine is not out of reach.